A Reuters/Ipsos survey of 4,506 US adults found majority opposition to prediction-market wagering on US elections, military actions, and government policy announcements or decisions.
The headline accurately attributes the finding to a Reuters/Ipsos poll and uses “most Americans” consistently with the reported majorities. Ipsos's published topline shows 60 percent opposition to wagering on US election results, 65 percent opposition for US military actions, and 63 percent opposition for government policy announcements or decisions. The survey used a nationally representative probability sample of 4,506 adults and reports a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for the full sample, so those majorities are well outside that uncertainty range. The headline does not convey every methodological limitation or the substantial shares answering “not sure,” but those omissions do not materially distort its central claim.
Additional research
Ipsos's official topline and methodology independently confirm the article's reported sample, field dates, weighting, margin of error, and the relevant opposition percentages. A contemporaneous CFTC staff advisory provides regulatory context and notes both the information-aggregation benefits of prediction markets and manipulation concerns for some event contracts; this context does not contradict the poll's public-opinion claim. The poll measures stated attitudes, not behavior, and subgroup margins of error are larger than for the full sample.